October 22 – RBA surprises, are we nearing the end?

RBA Recap

  • RBA caught the market by surprise with their decision on monetary policy at their September meeting
  • That was despite the shift in approach being flagged in the previous month’s post meeting statement
  • The decision reverberated around markets leaving the yield curve markedly changed
  • It sets the tone for next month with a near term pause looking increasingly likely in the months ahead

Market Dynamics

  • Market liquidity has become less volatile, with ADIs not experiencing such extremes in funding pressures.
  • Term deposit and NCD rates have continued to increase, in line with reference rates and market expectations.

 The Australian Economy

  • The Australian Dollar losing strength is presenting a ‘Mining Boom’ like environment for the Australian economy.
  • The consumer has remained resilient and continues to drive the economy forward.
  • With mortgages repricing in the middle to back end of 2023, households will be in for a rude shock as their disposable income decreases.
  • Uncertainty plagues the path ahead for Australia.


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Curve Team
Nicholas Allan
Senior Associate