November 22 – Central bank narrative starting to turn

RBA Recap

  • The RBA hiked by 25 basis for the second month in a row.
  • Striking the balance between taming inflation and not tipping the economy over, remains the largest challenge at the hands of the RBA.
  • A similar theme is prevalent from a number of central banks across developed economies.
  • As such, we are seeing the narrative shift amongst central bankers with the end of the tightening cycle drawing closer.

Market Dynamics

  • Liquidity has come at a premium over the past month.
  • Things are starting to heat up as ADIs pull on all levers they have.
  • Term Deposit and NCD rates are more attractive than ever. But are they here to stay?

The Australian Economy

  • Confidence is low for businesses and the consumer. Inflation and real income are to blame.
  • Inflation has hit 7.30% YoY, and it will head higher. Consumers are looking to cut spending over the holiday period.
  • Australia’s trade balance has increased significantly over the past month due to a weak Aussie Dollar and high commodity prices.


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Curve Team
Nicholas Allan
Senior Associate