Strong Jobs Data Keeps RBA Tightening Firmly in Play

• Australia’s unemployment rate held at 4.4% in June, printing in line with expectations and unchanged from May – a steady headline that masked a much stronger report underneath.
• Employment surged 76,300 over the month to a record 14.82 million, comfortably ahead of the 15,000 consensus and following an upwardly revised 43,900 gain in May. Full-time jobs added 29,300 while part-time contributed 47,100.
• Participation climbed to 67.0% from 66.7%, the highest reading since July 2025, with more Australians actively entering the workforce over the month.
• The outsized jobs print was partly technical, with a sizeable cohort who had locked in roles back in May only commencing in June. The lift in participation alongside rising underemployment may also point to more Australians entering the workforce out of cost of living necessity.
• Rate markets moved swiftly on the print, with the probability of a 25bp RBA hike now priced in for the August meeting