RBA Minutes in Focus as Markets Await Key Data

• Markets were subdued overnight, with US 10-year Treasury yields holding at 4.38% and Australian 10-year yields near 4.78%, as investors looked ahead to a busy week of central bank commentary and labour market data.
• RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent reinforced that the cash rate remains the Bank’s primary policy tool, signalling policymakers remain firmly focused on conventional tightening while inflation remains above target.
• Attention turns to today’s RBA Minutes, where markets will be looking for further insight into the Board’s thinking following June’s pause. Markets currently price only a 20% chance of an August hike.
• US-Iran peace talks are set to resume in Doha, supporting hopes of a further de-escalation in Middle East tensions. Improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to ease pressure on global energy markets.
• Offshore, focus now shifts to US JOLTS job openings ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with labour market resilience remaining a key driver of Fed expectations