Daily Flows
- Banks eager for funds were met positively with seasonal inflows from various sectors.
- Term deposit levels of 5.00% and higher were easily attainable for 6–9 month tenors.
- Following a flurry of primary issuances last week, there is active secondary trading across new lines. The recent CBA issue has tightened to around +79.
Unemployment Returns to 4.0%, Is it Enough to Move the RBA?
- The Australian unemployment rate edged up to 4.0% in December 2025, with employment growing by 56.3k.
- Over the past three quarters, unemployment has remained within the narrow 3.9%-4.2% range.
- Labour demand was balanced by an increase in supply, with part-time jobs driving the gains (+80.0k) and full-time positions declining by 23.7k.
- The labour market continues to defy expectations, with non-market employment growth offsetting weak hiring in the private sector.
- The data was not significant enough to shift market expectations for the upcoming February RBA meeting, with the probability of a 25bp rate cut remaining at around 70%.