Yields Climb as RBA Outlook Steadies and Global Risks Build

• Markets returned from the long weekend with expectations that the RBA will hold rates until February, with the curve pricing in just one more cut this cycle.
• US payrolls were delayed by the government shutdown, though private data signalled softer labour conditions.
• Global yields moved higher amid political and fiscal concerns in Japan and France; US 10-year rose 4bp to 4.16%, US 2-year up 2bp to 3.59%, and AU 10-year increased 5.8bp to 4.395%.
• The RBNZ is expected to cut rates by at least 25bp to 2.75% next week, with a dovish tone that could leave room for a larger move; locally, focus turns to consumer confidence and job ads data.