What Will the RBA Minutes Signal on Hikes?

• The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes from its December meeting today, where the cash rate was held at 3.60% in the final policy decision of 2025.
• Attention will be on the detail beneath the headline, particularly any discussion that extends beyond Michele Bullock’s press conference remarks. This includes views on the recent inflation uptick, how persistent those pressures may be, and signals around capacity utilisation across the economy.
• Offshore, focus turns to US growth data, with markets awaiting the latest United States GDP release, where consensus is looking for a solid 3.2% annualised print for Q4.
• In rates, the US 2-year Treasury yield edged up to around 3.52%, underscoring how sensitive the front end remains to near-term Federal Reserve expectations.
• Despite the modest uptick, the yield is still roughly 83bps lower than a year ago.