- US long-end yields pushed to fresh 24-year highs, with the 10-year reaching 5.34% and 30-year 5.70% before easing slightly. Yield curves continue to steepen as longer-term supply and fiscal concerns outweigh softer near-term rate expectations.
- September payrolls rose just 29k versus 90k expected, while unemployment edged to 4.2% and wage growth slowed to 3.0% y/y. The initial rally in short-dated Treasuries faded quickly, with markets still pricing around a 25% chance of an October Fed hike.
- Oil eased around 2% but remains near US$100/bbl, helped by the G7 agreeing to release 100m barrels over four months and improving Saudi flows. Energy supply risks remain a key inflation watchpoint.
- Australian yields moved higher, with 3-year futures rising to 4.98% and the 10-year to 5.44%. Markets price around a 30% chance of an RBA hike in November and 45% by December.
- Ahead today: Westpac Consumer Confidence and ANZ-Indeed Job Ads, with the October confidence read providing an early look at how households are responding to higher rates and softer inflation.
