US Yields Extend Post-Payrolls Decline

• It was a quiet start to the week, with the major headline being US yields extended their post-payrolls slide, with the 10-year Treasury down another 3bp to 4.05% and the 2-year easing 2bp to 3.49%.
• Markets continue to lean toward deeper Fed cuts, with 72bp of easing now priced across the next three meetings, up from 69bp at the end of last week.
• For September, about 28bp of cuts are implied, suggesting investors see some chance of a larger 50bp move.
• In France, Prime Minister Bayrou lost a confidence vote, as expected, after putting forward plans to narrow the deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026. Achieving that goal is projected to require EUR44bn in tax hikes and spending cuts.
• Closer to home, today brings ANZ Consumer Confidence and the NAB Business Survey, which will offer a fresh read on household sentiment and business conditions.