US Q3 GDP Shows Broad-Based Strength

• The RBA Minutes added fresh colour around how the Board is thinking about the path ahead, with discussion now openly turning to what conditions could justify a rate increase sometime in 2026 as inflation pressures re-emerge.
• While members acknowledged recent data has tilted inflation risks to the upside, the Minutes stressed patience, noting the need for more evidence before concluding price pressures are proving persistent.
• The inflation backdrop remains uncomfortable for the Bank, with headline CPI lifting to 3.8% in October and the trimmed mean rising to 3.3%, leaving inflation clearly above the RBA’s 2–3% target range.
• In the US, growth momentum surprised to the upside, with GDP expanding at a 4.3% annualised pace in Q3, the strongest outcome in two years and well above earlier forecasts.
• That strength was broad-based, driven by a solid lift in consumer spending alongside gains in exports and government outlays, reinforcing the view that US activity remains resilient into year-end.