US Payrolls Miss, Policy Expectations Steady

• US labour market data came in softer than expected, with non-farm payrolls rising by 50k in December, below consensus, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4%.
• The data mix reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep policy settings unchanged in the near term.
• US rates reflected this shift, with the curve flattening as the 10-year yield dipped 2bpto 4.17%, while the 2-year yield rose 5bp to 3.54% on front-end repricing.
• Locally today, the focus turns to November Household Spending, with markets expecting the Monthly Household Spending Indicator to rise around 0.6% m/m, lifting annual growth to roughly 5.4%.
• The print follows a strong 1.3% m/m increase in October, the largest monthly gain since January 2024, keeping consumer momentum in focus.