- US inflation surprised to the upside, with core CPI rising 0.3% m/m versus 0.2% expected and 2.6% y/y. Headline CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, reinforcing concerns that disinflation is stalling.
- Treasury yields spiked immediately after the CPI, with the 2-year briefly reaching 4.95% and the 10-year 5.33% before most of the move retraced.
- Fed hike expectations jumped sharply, with October pricing moving from around 20% to above 50% before settling near 35%. Fed officials described the CPI as discouraging but stopped short of signalling an immediate move.
- Oil remains elevated near US$106/bbl, with ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption and rising Saudi–Houthi tensions keeping supply and inflation risks in focus.
- Australia’s September labour data lands at 11:30am today, with employment and unemployment the key local focus for the next leg of RBA pricing expectations.
