Today’s Session Runs Through CPI

• Markets traded without a clear direction overnight, with improving sentiment around a longer-term US–Iran agreement competing against fresh military developments, highlighting that confidence around the ceasefire remains far from settled.

• Markets continue to move with each headline, though hopes around a broader reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped support bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield easing 9bps to 4.50%.

• Locally, markets did not fully follow offshore moves, with Australian 10-year yields lifting around 2bps yesterday from 4.93% to 4.95%

• Attention today turns firmly domestic with the release of the April CPI print, where consensus sits at 0.6% m/m and 4.4% y/y, while trimmed mean inflation is expected at 3.4% y/y.

• Also on today’s calendar are the Q1 Construction Work Done figures. Across in New Zealand, attention turns to the RBNZ cash rate decision, where markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged at 2.25%.