The Week Ahead

• The US-Iran conflict remains highly volatile, with oil at $84 per barrel, though President Trump has announced peace talks with Iran will resume today following his cancellation of a planned military strike.
• The FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged at last week’s meeting, though three members dissented in favour of an immediate 25bp hike as the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to returning inflation to 2%. Markets now price a 72% chance of a hike in September.
• Australia’s CPI proved softer than expected, with headline inflation easing and the quarterly trimmed mean rising a less than expected 0.8%. Expectations of further RBA hikes this cycle are being pared back, with no move priced for the meeting later this month.
• Looking ahead, household spending data tomorrow will offer insight into how the consumer is holding up under higher rates and energy prices.