Strong US Payrolls before CPI

• A robust US jobs report has raised the probability of a hike this month, with the economy adding 162,000 jobs against consensus of 56,000. Yields rose on the print, the 10yr up 2bp to 4.79%.
• Attention now turns to the US CPI release later this week as the Fed weighs its options ahead of the end of month meeting. Consensus is 0.2% for the month, and any deviation is likely to shape the decision, with around 62% currently priced for a hike.
• Trump has pushed in the other direction, using Truth Social to demand the Fed cut immediately to 0.5-1% and threatening to cut trade ties with any nation running a trade deficit with the US.
• Oil remains elevated into the start of the week as the US and Iran continue to trade blows in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent at US$97/bbl and the potential to break US$100 should tensions fail to temper.
• Domestically, Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business confidence are due, along with speeches from RBA Chief Economist Hunter and Deputy Governor Hauser, and inflation expectations late in the week.