Strong Jobs Print Eases Unemployment, RBA Outlook Unchanged

• Australia’s unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% in October, easing back from September’s four-year high of 4.5% and beating the 4.4% the market had pencilled in.
• Jobs growth remained firm, with employment rising 42,200 to a new peak of 14.68 million. That’s more than double expectations and follows a modestly stronger September print after revision.
• The update doesn’t shift the broader narrative – labour conditions are still running tighter than the RBA would like if inflation is to return comfortably to target.
• Current market pricing has fully priced out any move at the 9 December RBA meeting, and sees only about a 35% chance of a cut over the next year. One major bank even shifted its call yesterday, suggesting the RBA wont not cut until 2027.
• Offshore, attention turns to China’s October data drop today, covering Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Home Prices and Fixed Asset Investment.