Risk Off, as GDP Momentum Fades.

• Markets have shifted risk-off globally as the US-Iran conflict shows no sign of resolution, with the two exchanging fire. Further supply disruption has pushed oil prices higher with global yields rising on inflation concerns.
• Locally, GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in Q1, leaving annual growth at 2.5%, a marked step down from the 0.9% quarterly pace of Q4 2025. Activity was driven by data centre investment and higher household consumption, offset by imports of the compute required and disruptions to export volumes.
• The Australian 10yr yield rose to 4.93%, though the GDP figures don’t appear to have shifted market expectations for RBA policy, one hike still priced by the end of the year.
• Looking ahead, the April goods trade balance is due, with Governor Bullock speaking before the Senate.