RBA’s Hunter Speaks Today

• Today, focus turns to RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter’s ‘fireside chat’ at the Australian Finance Industry Association conference, with markets watching for remarks on Q2 GDP and July CPI, both slightly firmer than the RBA’s August assessment.
• Markets began the week quietly, with little data released. US yields drifted 2–3bp lower across the curve, leaving the 10yr around 4.04% ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the key focus this week.
• Locally, the Aussie 10yr eased from 4.28% to 4.23%. Markets now price only a 10% chance of a 25bp RBA cut at the 30 September meeting, with the cash rate still at 3.60%.
• Beyond that, about two more cuts are priced for November and February, consistent with expectations for the easing cycle, with the terminal rate seen just above 3.10%.