RBA Takes Centre Stage

• The RBA announces its cash rate decision at 2:30pm AEST, with markets and economists overwhelmingly expecting the cash rate to remain unchanged. The focus will be on whether the Board retains a tightening bias despite recent signs that inflation is easing.
• The accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy is expected to show only modest forecast changes, while reinforcing a hawkish tone. Softer inflation and a slightly weaker labour market are likely to trim near-term forecasts, but the RBA is expected to keep the door open to further tightening if inflation stalls.
• Brent crude rose to around US$87/bbl as hopes of a near-term Middle East agreement faded. With little progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, energy markets continue to price an elevated geopolitical risk premium.
• The NAB Business Survey is released at 11:30am, providing an updated read on business conditions ahead of the RBA decision. Markets will be watching whether business confidence continues to soften amid geopolitical uncertainty or shows signs of stabilising.