RBA Minutes Under the Microscope

• Market odds now put a FOMC December cut at around 40%, a sharp pullback from the 90% pricing seen only a few weeks ago. Even so, market sentiment still leans toward three cuts over the full easing cycle.
• With federal data releases kicking back into gear this week, we should finally get some direction. Friday’s labour market print is the key one, and until then the tone is likely to stay cautious.
• US Treasury yields dipped slightly on Monday, with the 10-year falling 2bps to 4.13%, amid light market activity.
• Up today, the RBA will release the minutes from its November 3-4 policy meeting, which may provide further insight into the RBA’s tone at the meeting.
• That said, after the Governor’s post-decision press briefing and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s recent remarks, the Minutes are unlikely to contain much new ‘market-moving’ information.