- RBA minutes and the NAB Business Survey lead the local calendar today, with markets looking for clues on how high the bar is for another hike. Pricing currently implies around a 50% chance of a further move by year-end.
- Australian wage growth remained contained, with CommBank Wage Insights showing 0.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y in September. There is little evidence so far that higher inflation is feeding into broader wage setting.
- Ceasefire hopes faded quickly, after Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure and Middle East shipping risks intensified. Brent rebounded around 2% to US$106.9/bbl, keeping energy-driven inflation risks elevated.
- US inflation is the key offshore focus this week, with September headline CPI expected at 0.6% m/m and core at 0.2%. An upside core surprise could quickly revive expectations for another Fed hike.
- US cash Treasuries were closed for Columbus Day, although futures pointed to the 10-year yield opening around 1–2bps higher near 5.25%.
