RBA in focus

• The main event this week is Tuesday’s RBA meeting, where a hold is expected as the Bank digests a softer than expected CPI print, though inflation remains above the target band.
• Housing remains a key focus following the series of rate hikes and the budget, which have left demand weaker, with house prices, mortgage applications and auction clearance rates all falling. The softening may reduce the need for the RBA to raise rates again.
• US payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, losing 23,000 jobs against an expected 83,000 addition, with further downward revisions to May and June. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, reflecting fewer jobs but also fewer people looking for them.
• Expectations of a Fed hike eased slightly to 44%, with inflation still well above target but two CPI prints due before the September meeting and no forward guidance leaving the path uncertain.