RBA Holds at 3.60% as Inflation Forecasts Pushed Out to 2027

• The RBA held steady at 3.60% as expected, opting to wait for more data before shifting its stance.
• Bonds saw a quick jump post-meeting, the 3-year futures briefly hit higher before easing back to 3.64%, while 10-years settled lower at 4.32% after peaking at 4.38%.
• The quarterly SoMP showed the RBA nudging inflation forecasts higher, now expecting core inflation to stay above 3% until mid-2026.
• The path back to target has been pushed out, with inflation seen returning to around 2.6% by mid-2027, roughly 18 months later than the August update.
• The tone of the statement came across less hawkish than many had expected, describing the current stance as “a little restrictive” but noting some uncertainty around whether it’s already tight enough.