RBA Hike Hardens

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said inflation risks remain skewed higher in 9Now podcast released this morning, despite softer growth and housing. Employment confidence rose 3.2pts to 86.3, but remains near historic lows.
• Today brings CommBank Household Spending and the final RBA speakers before next week’s meeting. Markets price around an 88% chance of a September hike, with most majors now expecting further tightening in September and November.
• Oil briefly fell below US$100/bbl as Trump signalled openness to meeting Iran and Saudi exports improved through Hormuz, easing near-term inflation pressure.
• Goolsbee warned persistent supply shocks may still require a policy response, keeping the front end firm. The 2-year held near 4.75%, while the 10-year fell 4.5bps to 4.95%.
• US-China talks also supported sentiment, with constructive trade, AI and investment discussions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.