Property Wobbles, Oil Rallies

• Australian housing weakened further in August, with national values down 0.9% m/m and 3.6% below March’s peak and Sydney now 6.7% below January’s high. Softer housing conditions add to signs domestic momentum is cooling.
• US-Iran tensions flared again, pushing Brent up 2.5% to US$90.45/bbl and WTI up 2.7%with  with US forces striking two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, reviving near-term energy and inflation risks.
• US Treasuries bear-steepened, with the 10-year yield up 4bps to ~4.75%, its highest since January 2025. Markets now price about a 65% chance of a September Fed hike.
• Ahead today: China manufacturing PMI, Australia’s current account and building approvals. The Q2 current account deficit is expected to widen to A$30bn, with softer activity data likely to shape growth expectations and the near-term RBA outlook ahead of tomorrow’s GDP results.