Oil Fans the Rates Flame

• US Labor Day kept markets quiet, but Middle East tensions did not, with fresh US-Iran exchanges pushing oil higher and weighing on risk sentiment.
• Brent briefly touched US$98/bbl, a six-week high, lifting global yields as inflation risks resurfaced. Australian 3-year futures yields rose to 4.80% and 10-year yields to 5.22%.
• Locally, Westpac Consumer Sentiment and the NAB Business Survey are due today. The releases will test whether improving household sentiment can hold while business confidence remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainty and cost pressures.
• RBA speakers are also in focus, with Chief Economist Hunter and Deputy Governor Hauser due to speak ahead of the September meeting. Markets price around a 70% chance of a 25bp hike on 29 September, with more than one full hike priced by November.