Oil Above $100 as RBA Decision Looms

• Markets remained cautious to end last week with little progress in the Iran conflict. Energy continues to drive sentiment, with oil closing above $100/bbl, its highest since 2022 and a renewed inflation risk.
• In the US, revised figures showed Q4 GDP slowing to 0.7% annualised, about half the pace initially reported. The data had limited impact on rates, with the 10-year Treasury rising around 1bp to 4.28%.
• Locally, focus is firmly on the RBA meeting tomorrow, where a 25bp increase to 4.10% is widely expected and shaping up as the key macro event this week.
• Expectations have shifted quickly, 18 of 24 economists now call for a hike, while markets price around 15bps for March and over 60bps of tightening by year-end.
• Attention then turns to Thursday’s labour force report, where unemployment is expected to hold at 4.1% with roughly 20k jobs added — another test of how tight the labour market remains against a hawkish RBA backdrop.