New CPI Print to Watch in the Week Ahead

• Domestically, Wednesday’s release of Australia’s updated monthly CPI figures will be the headline event and a major data focus for markets this week.
• Fed member John Williams signalled that a near-term rate cut remains on the table, prompting markets to lift the probability of a 25bp move in December.
• He commented that policy settings remain “moderately restrictive,” though less so following the Fed’s recent adjustments.
• Market now imply roughly a 65% likelihood that the Fed funds rate, currently 3.875% (mid), will be lowered by 25bp at the 11 December meeting.
• The final University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment nudging up to 51.0, with long-term inflation expectations softening to 3.4% from 3.6%.
• Geopolitically, the US published a 28-point framework aimed at pushing forward Russia-Ukraine negotiations. President Trump has asked Ukraine to respond by 27 November, while President Putin suggested the outline could serve as a starting point for talks.