Muted Month-End, Busy December Ahead

• Global markets drifted into month-end with limited momentum, largely due to the US Thanksgiving break, but activity should lift as December books reset and liquidity improves.
• China’s November PMIs were slightly soft: manufacturing edged up to 49.2 but missed consensus, while non-manufacturing slipped to 49.5, pointing to uneven domestic demand.
• With two months of Q4 data now in, the trajectory suggests Q4 growth is shaping up weaker than Q3, highlighting fading momentum into year-end.
• Fed expectations firmed further, with markets now pricing 80%+ odds of a 25bp cut on 10 December, a sharp rise from two weeks prior. FOMC members are now in blackout ahead of the meeting.
• Locally, Australia enters a data-heavy week with Q3 GDP the key release, supported by partials – dwelling approvals, household spending indicators, and goods trade data for a broader read on domestic strength.