Markets Trim Rate-Cut Bets as Missing Payrolls Leave Fed Flying Blind

• Fed rate-cut expectations eased after news the October US payrolls report will not be released, leaving the Fed “flying blind” into the December meeting; FOMC minutes leaned slightly hawkish.

• US yields were steady: the 2-year held around 3.56–3.58% and the 10-year around 4.10–4.13%; markets now price only a 30% chance of a December 25bp cut (down from 45%).

• Australian 3-year futures traded at 3.74–3.76% and the 10-year rose to 4.46%; markets assign just a 5% chance of an RBA cut in December and 50% odds of one within a year.

• US Treasury yields edged slightly higher after the minutes showed “many” members pushed back against another cut; markets now await upcoming US jobs, housing, and manufacturing data, and an RBA fireside chat.