Markets to Watch This Week

• Markets ended last week in a risk off tone, weighed down by softer Chinese data and uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. Pricing has roughly 11 basis points of cuts pencilled in for the 10 December meeting.
• China’s latest activity data came in softer than expected. Industrial production eased to 4.9% year on year, down from 6.5% and below the 5.5% forecast, with weaker external demand dragging on exports and industrial sales. Fixed asset investment slipped to minus 1.7%year to date.
• Aussie bonds drifted lower through the week, with the 10 year giving back ground as markets reduced expectations for RBA cuts. Pricing for mid 2026 now reflects around 13 basis points of easing, down roughly 7 basis points from the prior week.
• Domestically the key focus this week is Wednesday’s Q3 Wage Price Index, along with the latest RBA minutes.
• In the United States the data flow resumes, with September payrolls due Thursday following the end of the government shutdown.