Markets Await RBA Decision

• The RBA is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps today, lowering the cash rate to 3.60% from 3.85%, with markets fully priced for the move and consensus anticipating a unanimous decision.
• The Statement on Monetary Policy is likely to show only minor adjustments to forecasts, with inflation, growth, and unemployment projections broadly in line with May’s outlook.
• Attention will turn to whether the RBA views policy as approaching neutral territory, a point that may be addressed in Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference following the announcement.
• In the US, CPI data will be closely watched for any tariff-related effects. Consensus sees Core CPI at 0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y (up from 2.9%), with risks tilted to the upside.