Labour Data Keeps RBA Outlook Intact

• Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in March, in line with expectations, though still sitting around the upper end of the range seen since late last year.
• Employment growth was slightly softer than expected, with +17.9k jobs added over the month versus ~20k forecast. The composition showed a modest lift in full-time roles (+4.6k), while part-time employment declined by 3.8k.
• The participation rate edged down to 66.8% from 66.9%, suggesting a small pullback in labour supply, which helped keep the unemployment rate steady.
• Taken together, the data is unlikely to materially shift the RBA’s assessment, with the labour market still viewed as a touch tighter than what would be considered full employment.
• Looking through recent geopolitical volatility, there remains limited pressure on the RBA’s February forecasts, which have unemployment holding around 4.3% through the second half of the year.