Iran Deal Progress Drags Oil Lower

• US-Iran diplomatic talks concluded in Switzerland with negotiators locking in a working framework following overnight discussions. Iran described the outcome as a significant breakthrough, while the US granted a 60-day window permitting Iranian crude exports with dollar-denominated clearing.
• The development hit energy markets hard – Brent dropped 3.3% to around $78/bbl and WTI shed 2.3% to close to $75/bbl, as expectations of additional Iranian supply re-entering the market weighed on prices.
• As expected, Keir Starmer stepped down as Prime Minister, triggering a Labour leadership contest with Andy Burnham widely regarded as the frontrunner to become the fifth occupant of Downing Street since 2022.
• Despite the upheaval, UK markets held up well. Gilt yields edged lower with the 10-year settling at 4.80%, and sterling recovered early weakness to trade just 0.2% softer over 24 hours – pointing to investor confidence in an orderly transition.
• Domestically, June S&P Global PMI figures are due today alongside readings from major economies, offering an early read on business conditions as the first half of the year draws to a close.