- The RBA minutes from the September meeting revealed a hawkish bias, focusing on upside inflation risks and capacity constraints. Notably, the RBA signalled it is prepared to tolerate slower growth and employment given persistent supply shocks, and pointed to a rising neutral rate.
- Meanwhile, the NAB business survey showed confidence falling 4 points to -13 in September, a third straight monthly fall. Conditions held at -1, but the employment sub-index slipped, setting up tomorrow’s jobs data.
- Globally, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook warned of widening growth divergences, renewed inflation pressures and mounting downside risks, and the need for “urgent choices” as rising government debt and fiscal instability and has driven bond yields to multi-decade highs.
- In the US, tonight’s September CPI is expected to show headline inflation lifting to 0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, from 0.4% and 3.4%, with core edging up to 2.5% from 2.4%.
