Global Yields Jump as BoJ Hike Bets Surge

• December opened on a softer tone, with a risk-off mood setting in and core global yields pushing higher. The move was led by Japan, where JGBs came under notable pressure.
• Markets have quickly repriced for a potential 25bp BoJ hike on 19 December, with odds now above 80% after Governor Ueda signalled the Board will actively assess the case for higher rates.
• Japan’s 2-year yield has broken above 1.0% for the first time since 2008, underscoring growing confidence that ultra-easy policy is nearing a turning point.
• US Treasuries followed the global shift, with the 10-year up 8bps to 4.09% and the 2-year up 5bps to 3.54%, reflecting broader rate adjustment after the Japan-led move.
• On the domestic front, a batch of GDP partials arrives today, including the current account and building approvals, before the full Q3 GDP print lands tomorrow