Geopolitics Still Driving the Story

• Despite the choppy headlines, markets are still leaning toward a ceasefire-type outcome. The US is signalling another round of talks this week, but there’s no confirmation from Iran yet, with the blockade continuing to complicate progress.
• Kevin Warsh used his prepared remarks to reinforce that monetary policy should remain independently set.
• He also noted that public commentary from politicians doesn’t materially interfere with how those decisions are ultimately made.
• Bond markets were relatively composed to start the week, with US yields ticking slightly higher as the weekend developments were largely taken in stride — the 10-year sits around 4.26% and the 2-year closer to 3.72%.
• There’s very little on the domestic calendar to start the week, so attention shifts offshore, with US retail sales and UK labour figures the main data points to watch.