CPI Print Set to Move Markets

• The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged yesterday, as expected, however the 6-3 voting split drew attention, with three members supporting a 25bps hike –  suggesting a more hawkish undercurrent within the board.
• US consumer confidence surprised to the upside, lifting to 92.8, driven by stronger forward-looking sentiment despite a softer read on current conditions.
• Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve overnight, with markets positioned for no change. Policymakers remain cautious, preferring clearer evidence that inflation is easing sustainably before considering rate cuts.
• Locally, focus shifts to today’s ABS CPI release for March and Q1. Leading into the print, expectations for a May RBA move have continued to build, with now 20bps priced in.
• Also into the data, Australian bond markets have been trading higher, with 3 year futures pushing toward 4.80% from 4.73%, while 10 year yields have traded up to 5.10%.