Busy Week Ahead

• With a 25bps hike widely expected from the RBA tomorrow (markets pricing a 90% chance), attention turns to the accompanying commentary, any dissenters and whether a further hike can be expected before year end, with markets implying a cash rate of 4.75% by then.
• Wednesday’s CPI release falls after the decision so won’t factor into tomorrow’s outcome, but it will be critical for future decisions as the RBA weighs up whether to go back to back, with trimmed mean expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y.
• Long-term bond yields remain elevated across a range of countries as fiscal deficits stay high, with little indication of them reducing over the long term. In the US, the 30yr yield rose 3bps to 5.49%, having earlier touched 5.53%, its highest level since 2004, while the 10yr eased 4bps to 5.16%.
• Further into the week, focus turns to Australian household spending and trade data, alongside US payrolls and PCE.