Bonds Steady as Markets Eye Fed Cuts

• FOMC minutes showed most policymakers still favour more rate cuts this year, with “almost all” backing September’s 25bp move amid softer labour conditions. A few preferred to pause, noting limited progress toward the 2% inflation goal.
• Across the US yields were mixed, the 2-year rose 3bp to 3.59%, while the 10-year briefly dipped to 4.09% before closing near 4.13%. Markets still price an 85% chance of another 25bp cut on 30 October and around four cuts in total this cycle.
• Australian yields followed the global tone, with 3-year futures easing to 3.58% and the 10-year slipping to 4.37%. Expectations are level at about a 40% chance of a 25bp RBA cut on 4 November and only one more move beyond that.
• Global bond markets remain focused on central bank signals, balancing slower growth with lingering inflation risks.