Australia’s Trade Surplus Narrows as Exports Lose Momentum

• Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in November, falling to AUD 2.94bn, well below expectations and the smallest since August, as exports slipped and imports rose.
• Exports were the key drag, down 2.9% m/m, led by weaker metal ores and minerals, pulling the surplus to around $1bn below the 2025 average.
• This reintroduces some downside risk for growth, after net trade weighed on GDP in Q3 and October’s improvement proved short-lived.
• In the US, the trade deficit surprised to the downside, shrinking to $29.4bn, the smallest gap since 2009, largely due to tariff-driven swings in trade flows.
• US inflation expectations ticked up at the short end while jobs confidence softened, keeping the spotlight on non-farm payrolls and unemployment data tomorrow.