Australia Lending Pulse Remains Strong

• Housing finance rose sharply in Q3, with total lending up 9.6% for the quarter and 13.2% higher over the year. Investment lending led the way, jumping 18.7% year-on-year.

• Owner-occupier lending also lifted 9.8%, while investment lending for housing climbed 17.6% to AUD 39.8 billion in Q3.

• With housing momentum holding firm, it’s difficult to see the RBA moving toward cuts anytime soon. Many now view the data as evidence that current policy may not be as restrictive as once thought.

• Market pricing reflects that view, with only around a 10% chance of a December rate cut and the cash rate steady at 3.60% for the best part of 2026.

• Focus now turns to today’s labour force figures at 11:30am, where consensus and RBA forecasts expect unemployment to edge down to 4.4%.