All Eyes on RBA and FOMC as Policy Paths Diverge

• Global bond markets firmed into the new week, with yields drifting higher across majors. Australia’s 10-year futures stood out, rising just over 19bps across the week with the largest move among the group.

• The backdrop is a heavy run of data and central bank meetings that will shape sentiment into Christmas, keeping traders cautious.

• Locally, the RBA meets Tuesday and is widely expected to stay on hold, though the risk balance has tilted more hawkish, setting the stage for firmer communication.

• In the US, markets are now fully priced for a 25bp cut at this week’s FOMC meeting, despite a divided committee narrative.

• China adds more to the macro mix, with trade numbers out today and CPI/PPI mid-week key markers for whether the economy’s tentative stabilisation is holding.