Daily Flows

• Curve yesterday successfully launched The Mutual’s (A-2/BBB) new 1 and 3 year senior floating rate notes as sole lead manager. The 1-year priced at  +100bps and the 3-year at +150bps, with the transaction fully allocated — reflecting strong investor appetite for a regional bank issuance.
• Heartland Bank (BBB) remains a standout at 4.65% for 3–6 month terms, drawing demand from cash-focused investors seeking short-term value.
• Some NCD issuers are lifting pricing to +45bps over BBSW to retain funds, with foreign branches still offering a premium to domestic names.

Yields Lower as Eyes Turn to Powell

• A quiet overnight session saw bond yields ease across the curve, with no major data releases or surprises from U.S. Treasury auctions; the 10-year yield fell 4bps to 4.30%, while the 2-year dipped 6bps to 3.78%.
• Risk sentiment remains cautious ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC decision, with markets watching for any shift in tone amid ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty.
• The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with Chair Powell likely to downplay soft Q1 GDP while highlighting resilient private demand, a strong labour market, and lingering services inflation.
• Locally, the Monthly Household Spending Indicator showed flat spending in Q1, raising the risk that the RBA’s expected rebound in consumption may take longer to materialise.