Daily Flows

• ​​​It’s the first day of the financial year, and activity is expected to slow after yesterday’s EOFY rush. Many investors managed to find banks at high levels, often securing 5bp or more above carded rates in the final days of June.
• AMP is again leading in the short end, with its 31-day notice account offering 4.50% (corporate) and 4.30% (financial). The 30bps discretionary bonus will apply to new accounts opened from today.
• NCD activity may be slow to start the month, with some A-2 domestic names beginning to offer +40bps over 3-month BBSW for new funds

Yields Fall on Treasury Comments

• With no major data overnight, markets were largely headline-driven. US bond yields eased 3–6bps, led by the longer end, after Treasury Secretary Bessent advised against increasing the average maturity of US government debt
• The US yield curve bull-flattened following those remarks: 2-year yields slipped 3bps, 10-years fell 5bps, and 30-years dropped 6bps. The market now prices in 29bps of Fed rate cuts by September and 68bps by December, reflecting growing confidence in a policy shift.
• In Australia, private sector credit rose by 0.5% in May, following April’s strong 0.7% gain. Annual growth has lifted to 6.9%, with household credit remaining one of the key drivers.
• Today is relatively quiet on the domestic data front. In the US, attention will turn to May’s JOLTS report and June’s ISM Manufacturing data.