Daily Flows
- There was strong demand for 6-month placements, with this point on the curve offering the highest outright rates across both term deposits and NCDs.
- Opportunities for term deposits above 5.00% for 4–5 years now feel like a distant memory. That said, many still see value in offers above 4.50% for that tenor.
- Credit spreads continue to widen, with Newcastle Senior Unsecured paper maturing in 2030 seeing margins climb approximately 40 basis points to around +145.
Whipsaw Markets Overnight
- Market participants likely went to bed with concern, as S&P futures pointed to heavy losses ahead.
- Surprisingly, the S&P 500 swung sharply—down nearly 5.00% intraday before rebounding to finish just 0.2% lower.
- Volatility and uncertainty persist as Trump continues to implement his tariff agenda.
- The scale and speed of these policy shifts are creating an environment that’s incredibly difficult for investors, businesses, and forecasters to navigate.
- This uncertainty has triggered widespread risk aversion, slowing deal flow and forcing many to adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach.
- With the scope and duration of these tariffs still unclear, markets will likely remain volatile as participants have to stay defensive.
