Daily Flows

• AMP continues to lead the short end, with its 31-day notice account offering 4.50% (corporate) and 4.30% (financial). The 30bps discretionary bonus remains available for a limited time on new accounts.
• Councils yesterday locked in strong value, with BBB+ names pricing at 4.40% for 6 months and 4.25% for 9 months.
• Yesterday, 3m BBSW at 3.58% and 6m at 3.75% highlights the ongoing yield curve steepness, keeping short-to-midterm pricing dynamics in focus for investors.

Stronger US Jobs Report Shift Markets

• US non-farm payrolls beat expectations, with 147,000 jobs added in June (vs. 106,000 expected), pushing bond yields sharply higher and reversing recent rate-cut momentum. The headline unemployment rate also improved to 4.1% from 4.2% (vs. 4.3% expected).
• As a result, markets pared back pricing for Fed rate cuts—now 51.4bps of easing expected in 2025 (down from 65bps), with September odds falling to 72% (18.1bps priced in, from 29.1bps).
• Shorter-term Treasuries led the move, with the 2-year yield rising 10bps to 3.88% and the 10-year up 7bps to 4.35%.
• Locally, attention today turns to the AU Household Spending Indicator after retail sales underwhelmed. With volatility in recent consumer prints, today’s update may provide more clarity on consumptions trends.