Daily Flows & Insights – U.S. Jobless Claims Early Indicator of Labour Market Cooling?

Daily Flows

  • Banks have been tending to favour bigger parcels, willing to offer above market levels to get things done.
  • Standout term deposit rates include 5.35% for 1 year, 5.25% for 3 year and 5.20% for 6 months.
  • There is plenty of two-way flow in the NCD space with some banks looking to sure up funding before TFF repayments and the seasonally tight EOFY is upon us.

U.S. Jobless Claims Early Indicator of Labour Market Cooling?

  • With minimal data overnight, markets turned their attention to the U.S. initial jobless claims which surged to 231k from 209k, surpassing the consensus of 212K and marking the largest weekly increase since June last year.
  • This rise follows declines in job openings at the end of March and softer growth in April non-farm payrolls, suggesting potential slowdown in the US labour market momentum.
  • Although it’s too early to definitively identify a change in direction, the continued rise in unemployment claims may lead the market to anticipate a forthcoming Fed easing cycle with greater certainty soon.
  • In Australia, although there was an uptick in unemployment the jobs markets remains incredibly tight. The continued tightness has been a surprising factor over the hiking cycle that has made for challenging forecasting on the monetary policy outlook.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen