Daily Flows & Insights – Trend Signs of a Softening Labour Market

Daily Flows

  • There is still an opportunity to pick up the recent Teachers Mutual 3-year MTN issuance, which priced at +130.
  • A domestic bank issued NCDs at +60 for 3-6 months to Curve. Market participants who acted quickly were able to secure this special while it was available.
  • There is strong demand for Semi FRNs, with high trading volume in the 3-5 year maturity bucket.

Trend Signs of a Softening Labour Market

  • The ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell by 2.1% MoM in May and have dropped 23.9% since their peak in November 2022, though they remain above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Recent labour market data shows slight employment growth, but the pace has significantly decreased. Unemployment and underemployment rates are rising over the past couple months.
  • The Job Ads data, typically a forward-looking indicator, suggests that we should continue to expect a softening labour market.
  • Looking ahead, the softening of the labour market and unit labour costs are crucial for the RBA to consider future rate cuts.
  • Markets are not expecting anything dramatic from the RBA today, with no reason to deviate from current monetary policy levels.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen