Daily Flows & Insights – The Year Ahead

Daily Flows

  • It was an unusual run in to the holiday season last year when it comes to flows and demand for funds from ADIs
  • We usually see a ramping up of demand for funds into the holiday break which usually peaks a few days out before Christmas day as ADis get set for the holidays.
  • However, in 2023 demand picked up following the Black Friday sales and then plateaued through December, mitigating the need for a ramp up in demand as the holiday season approached.,
  • This has been an evolution over the past couple of years as retail and consumer shift.


The Year Ahead

  • We start 2024 with a markedly different outlook to the once that welcomed us back from the holiday season at the start of 2023
  • As opposed to last year, where rate hike debate was raging strong, this year the focus is on when the inevitable rate cuts will start, how many we will see and how fast they will be delivered.
  • The consensus is that we will start to see rate cuts in the second half of the year.
  • However, expectations on the specific timing vary widely from mid-year all the way through to December or not at all with some even expecting up to 3 cuts by year end.
  • Much of this is being driven by what we are seeing offshore with 7 rate cuts now priced in for the Fed by the first meeting of 2025.
  • While this will have some impact on the RBA’s thinking, it will still be largely driven by how the outlook for inflation and employment in Australia.
Share this entry
Curve Team
David Flanagan